The US presidential election is the next big event on the agenda for global investors. Though the firmly mainstream Democrat Hillary Clinton is currently a clear favourite in the polls, the potential for political uncertainty is higher than usual with the populist and controversial Republican candidate Donald Trump in the running. And after the UK’s recent surprise vote to leave the European Union, investors will be taking predictions with more than the usual sprinkling of salt.
Increased market volatility would seem likely in the event of a surprise Trump victory. However, as with Brexit, we would expect the initial volatility to subside, especially as Trump may struggle to secure the necessary congressional backing for any of his policies that would fall outside of mainstream Republican conservatism.
Big economies are like economic super tankers, whose direction is not easily moved. And the US economy is the biggest. Factors like the growth of the labour force, education and technological change will continue to be the main long-term drivers of economic growth regardless of who’s in the White House. But that’s not to say there won’t be ups and downs along the way.
KEY DATES IN THE CAMPAIGN
26 September Presidential debate
4 October: Vice Presidential debate
9 October: Presidential debate
19 October: Presidential debate
8 November: Election Day
08 Jan 2021In this issue of our Investment Outlook, we discuss the changes we are seeing in such areas, including the world of work, the move to online entertainment and the increasing focus by investors such as ourselves on the sustainability of the companies they invest in.Read more »
Issued by Adam & Company Investment Management Limited (Adam), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Adam is registered in Scotland number SC102144. Financial Services Firm Reference Number 141831. Registered Office: 6-8 George Street, Edinburgh EH2 2PF.
The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up, and you may not recover the amount of your original investment. Past performance should not be taken as a guide to future performance. Where an investment involves exposure to a foreign currency, changes in rates of exchange may cause the value of the investment, and the income from it, to go up or down.
The information on this webpage is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities or any other investment or banking product, nor does it constitute a personal recommendation. The information is believed to be correct but cannot be guaranteed.
Any opinion or forecast constitutes our judgement as at the date of issue and is subject to change without notice. Nothing in this material constitutes investment, legal, credit, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable for or appropriate to your individual circumstances. The analysis contained within this webpage has been procured, and may have been acted upon, by Adam and connected companies for their own purposes, and the results are being made available to you on this understanding. To the extent permitted by law and without being inconsistent with any applicable regulation, neither Adam nor any connected company accepts responsibility for any direct or indirect or consequential loss suffered by you or any other person as a result of your acting, or deciding not to act, in reliance upon such analysis.