The US presidential election is the next big event on the agenda for global investors. Though the firmly mainstream Democrat Hillary Clinton is currently a clear favourite in the polls, the potential for political uncertainty is higher than usual with the populist and controversial Republican candidate Donald Trump in the running. And after the UK’s recent surprise vote to leave the European Union, investors will be taking predictions with more than the usual sprinkling of salt.
Increased market volatility would seem likely in the event of a surprise Trump victory. However, as with Brexit, we would expect the initial volatility to subside, especially as Trump may struggle to secure the necessary congressional backing for any of his policies that would fall outside of mainstream Republican conservatism.
Big economies are like economic super tankers, whose direction is not easily moved. And the US economy is the biggest. Factors like the growth of the labour force, education and technological change will continue to be the main long-term drivers of economic growth regardless of who’s in the White House. But that’s not to say there won’t be ups and downs along the way.
KEY DATES IN THE CAMPAIGN
26 September Presidential debate
4 October: Vice Presidential debate
9 October: Presidential debate
19 October: Presidential debate
8 November: Election Day
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